The GOP is emerging as the winner in the current political landscape, according to predictions from one election handicapper.
Data from Sabato’s Crystal Ball shows Republicans are gaining more registered voters in states where Democrats typically had an advantage.
Now, the GOP holds the lead in Florida, Kentucky, and West Virginia, where they previously trailed Democrats in registered voters.
The data shows that Republicans hold an edge over Democrats in 12 states, compared to Democrats, who only have a plurality over Republicans in 10 states and Washington D.C.
Self-proclaimed independents hold the majority in nine states.
But when numbers are tallied across the 31 states that track party registration, Democrats still emerge with the advantage. This possibly can be equated to the 31 states that track party registration being in Democratic strongholds.
Despite primarily Democratic states being counted, the data shows that many states where Democrats had long held a comfortable lead are turning red.
According to reporting by the Washington Examiner, Kyle Kondik, managing editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, noted that voter registration is typically a “lagging indicator.”
Kondik pointed to Kentucky and West Virginia as examples, saying, “No one thought of Kentucky and West Virginia as Democratic-leaning states anymore, even though … the Democrats still had a registration advantage there.”
Rather, Kondik concluded, the data is “coming a little bit more into alignment” with the partisanship of the state.
The shift toward Republican registration has drawn cheers from GOP leaders, particularly in Florida and Kentucky, where Governor Ron DeSantis and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnel celebrated the tides turning.
Yet, a truly significant milestone for Republicans is West Virginia, one of the newly red states that still has a Democratic Senator.
Commenting on this shift, RNC spokesman Nathan Brand said, “The shift in enthusiasm for the GOP starts with our strong candidates and our message and is complemented by the RNC’s state-of-the-art, data-driven ground game.”
