Latino voters are pulling away from President Trump and the Republican Party just weeks before the midterms, a new poll shows.
Quick Take
- Democrats hold a 24-point edge over Republicans on which party should control Congress, 59% to 35%, among Latino registered voters.
- Trump’s approval rating among Latino voters sits at just 27%, with 69% disapproving.
- Cost of living and inflation rank as the top concern, with most Latino voters blaming Trump’s policies for hurting the economy.
- The survey of 800 registered Latino voters was conducted by NBC News and Telemundo from September 21 to 28, 2026.
What The New NBC News And Telemundo Poll Found
The poll, released October 4, 2026, paints a rough picture for Republicans heading into the midterms. Democrats lead Republicans by 24 points, 59% to 35%, when Latino voters are asked which party should run Congress. That margin marks a sharp reversal from the inroads Republicans made with this group in 2024.
Trump’s standing with Latino voters has also taken a hit. Only 27% approve of his job performance, while 69% disapprove, according to the survey. For a bloc that gave Trump historic gains just two years ago, especially among men, that kind of drop is hard to spin as anything but a warning sign for Republicans.
Money Worries Drive The Shift
The economy, not immigration or culture war fights, appears to be the real driver here. Inflation and the cost of living rank as the single most important issue for 33% of Latino voters, and 52% put it first or second on their list of concerns. That tracks with what most working families across the country have been saying for months.
Disapproval of Trump’s economic record runs deep. Seventy-eight percent of Latino voters disapprove of how he’s handled the cost of living, and 74% disapprove of his overall economic management. Nearly two-thirds, 65%, say his policies have actively hurt economic conditions, compared with just 23% who say they’ve helped.
Family Budgets Are The Real Battleground
The pocketbook pain shows up in household terms too. Sixty-three percent of Latino respondents say their family income is falling behind the cost of living, while only 11% say their income is outpacing it. For conservatives who believe affordability should be the core midterm message, this is exactly the kind of data that should sharpen focus rather than invite excuses.
The poll surveyed 800 registered Latino voters by phone and text-based online outreach, with 20% of interviews conducted in Spanish. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. NBC’s own framing notes Republicans have still made some longer-term gains with this group, a detail that adds nuance without changing the current snapshot.
Why This Vote Has Never Been A Monolith
Latino voters have never moved as one bloc, and pretending otherwise misreads a complicated electorate. Turnout among Latino voters has swung wildly by cycle, lagging behind white voters historically and dropping from 31% in 2018 to under 24% in 2022 by some measures. The Democratic advantage among Latino voters also shrank from 34 points in 2020 to just 14 points in 2024 before this poll’s rebound.
Washington State
Demography and Population Studies
Washington State’s Latino Eligible-Voter Population Grew 224% Since 2000
Oct. 2, 2026
The findings also show that Latino eligible voters have the highest labor-force participation rate among the state’s major racial and… pic.twitter.com/9kYOBmDPUV
— S.A. Dupres (@Susan_Dupres) October 2, 2026
That history matters for how Republicans and Democrats should read this poll. A single survey, even one with a clear 24-point edge, is a snapshot of a restless electorate reacting to grocery bills and gas prices, not necessarily a permanent realignment. Economic conditions between now and November will likely do more to shape turnout than any single poll number does today.
Sources:
nbcnews.com, cnn.com, politicalwire.com, csmonitor.com
